
Geoff O’Reilly
I'm an early baby boomer. Australian. I've watched the world change. I don't claim expertise in anything in particular. Yes, I have a couple of dusty old university degrees on the wall, seen big business from the inside, been a business entrepreneur for 30+ years, raised capital, employed 1000+ people in a dozen or more countries, dealt with lawyers and governments, travelled, watched TV and read a lot. I rode the IT boom/bubble that burst in 2000. Made a bit and lost half of it: so I understand risk and acquired some wisdom. Enjoy the blog.-
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Tag Archives: Federal Reserve
US GDP downer pushed the market up!
About an hour after my last post, the US Department of Commerce released it’s final revision of data for US GDP for the first quarter of 2014 … a staggering -2.9%. Bloggers, twitterers and columnists went into overdrive: “This is the … Continue reading
Posted in financial markets, risk
Tagged delusion, economic growth, Federal Reserve, market value, US economy, Wall Street
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Approaching a market top?
A weird complacency seems to have settled over Wall Street. Stock prices are at a record. The S&P 500 broad index, currently at 1950, is remorselessly approaching 2000. It’s been climbing with hardly a pause for breath for more than five years. That’s … Continue reading
Posted in debt, financial markets, risk
Tagged bank behaviour, China debt, delusion, Dubai, economic growth, Federal Reserve, unemployment, Wall Street
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Beer goggles and holes
Is this the typical (central) bankers view of the mountain of debt in the world? … of the effect of the mountain of newly printed money? … of Wall Street reaching for the sky? “Continuing large-scale asset purchases risks … Continue reading
Phantom recovery
Highlights from yesterday’s US Government press release on jobs: unemployment down in one month from 7% to 6.7%; 74,000 new jobs created in December. Sounds OK doesn’t it? The economy must be recovering … (Wall Street rose a bit on … Continue reading
Posted in employment, tough times
Tagged BLS, delusion, economic growth, employment, Federal Reserve, jobs, unemployment, US economy, Wall Street
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The market v the economy in two graphs
The exuberance in the western world’s stock markets is palpable. The lead is coming from Wall Street where the end of year celebration was lubricated by a 30% gain. Thanks to the Federal Reserve printing $1 trillion out of thin … Continue reading
Posted in financial markets
Tagged delusion, economic growth, Federal Reserve, market value, Wall Street
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Bubbles anywhere?
Just about every relevant source I read is now writing about bubbles. Are we, or aren’t we, inflating bubbles? The Economist is typical: “TALK of bubbles is in the air again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit an all-time … Continue reading
Posted in financial markets
Tagged bubbles, delusion, Federal Reserve, market value, US economy, Wall Street
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US jobs – spinning the data
There was quite some buoyancy in the commentary on the US economy last week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released it’s monthly jobs data. Because the Federal Reserve has said it is more focused on employment than inflation, … Continue reading
Posted in employment
Tagged BLS, economic growth, employment, Federal Reserve, group think, jobs, US economy
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Interest rate announcements … what a circus!
Today the Reserve Bank held interest rates at their current 60 year low, 2.5%. Was that because they haven’t a clue what to do next? … when in doubt, do nothing? Within minutes, my phone and email was alight with … Continue reading
Banks. Don’t you just love ’em?
Before 2008 there were five enormous investment banks on Wall Street. These were not banks with tellers and branches looking after ordinary people and businesses. These were the deal makers. As the financial crisis unfolded, first Bears Sterns got into … Continue reading
Twitter IPO
I use Twitter every day. But not to tweet. Configured to follow the right news sources (BBC, NYT, Reuters, The Economist, RT and others) it makes a truly excellent news feed to keep up with what was going on. Today … Continue reading
Posted in financial markets, technology
Tagged Bloomberg, delusion, derivatives, Federal Reserve, Ford, market value, Twitter, Wall Street
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