The Wall Street stock market has broken stride in the last month or so. Through the last quarter of 2013 it kept rising, breaking new highs every few weeks. Just recently the Dow and the S&P have basically gone sideways.

Many have an opinion on why that might be. I don’t, because the market long ago left behind any rational basis for valuation relevant to the real economy and the likely future profit performance of businesses. It’s now all about the freshly printed money slopping about, and the bets traders are making against the market and each other.

So who does know what’s going on?

Well, those on the inside of businesses would have a pretty good idea don’t you think?

Of course they do. That’s why “insider trading” is illegal. But that doesn’t mean that insiders can’t buy and sell shares at various times in various circumstances.

Thomson Reuters and others keep an eye on share trades by insiders to see when they are selling and when they are buying. Goodness knows where the data comes from, but by standing back and looking at trends, you get a broad hint of what the corporate insiders think about the value of the shares they know about. If you were armed with inside knowledge of what was going on in a business and thought the share price was high and likely to fall, you’d be a seller, right?

Well, here’s Reuters view of the last 12 months. The peaks represent a high level of action by insiders heading for the exits.

Look what’s happened in January. Makes one wonder. Could it be why the rise in the market has lost momentum?

Zero Hedge comments:

Of course, we are sure someone will try and explain away this avalanche of insider-selling with “tax-related” factors or “taking-profits” but none of that negates the less-than-optimistic tone that it implies about what the short- or medium-term expectations are from management of the firms that comprise the US equity market…

Hmmmm …