Five or more years past the global financial crisis we are seeing more big trends that show just what a tipping point 2008 was.

In 2008 and 2009 many changes were obvious: falling stock markets; falling prices; wealth destruction; massive job losses; self interest trumping community and national interest; and even national interest trumping global interest, exemplified by the “failed” Copenhagen climate conference.

Now that we are 5 years on, wide-spread commentary has focused on the slower than ever before economic recovery everywhere, despite unprecedented stimulus and “experts” pulling on the economic levers. But it’s even worse because world economic growth is actually slowing, despite attempts by politicians tell us otherwise, and talk it up.

Permanently lower economic growth is starting to look like a new paradigm that our leaders don’t yet understand, or if they do, won’t be honest about. But is that such a bad thing? In my view it’s not. But our leaders don’t know how to handle it (and get them selves re-elected).

As one top Euro official Jean-Claude Juncker once confessed  “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.” His first phrase is disputable, the second, rare honesty.

One of the other flow on trends has been rising distrust of leaders, elites and institutions. Examples abound:

• A tide of violent political protest. (Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Bangladesh are just a few of the recent examples.)
• Protest about wages and employment conditions. (All over Europe, and recently even in the US.)
• Unprecedented electoral defeats. (Exhibits 1 and 2: NSW and Queensland)

Distrust of politicians and traditional political parties is playing out just about everywhere.

Here’s an interesting graph today from the Economist showing the declared political affiliation of Americans:

Just focus on the position in 2008, the year of Obama’s election. In the prior years Bush became less and less popular, so the relative positioning in 2008 is unsurprising: Republicans down and Democrats on a high; Independents about on long term average.

But look at the unprecedented trend since. Both Democrats and Republicans are significantly down. Independents way up, but no sign yet of a cohesive alternative third force.

If we could measure it, I’m guessing a similar pattern (of old parties and old thinking being out of favour) would emerge in most western democracies.

We also hear that the US Congress’ approval rating is 9%.

American politics as we knew it has clearly changed dramatically: in the near term definitely for the worse …

… But eventually? Maybe not.

What is certain is that the great American democracy is facing a stern test. The rest of us will just have to watch and hope it passes that test.