Monthly Archives: January 2014

Something here we don’t know?

Posted on January 20, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

The Wall Street stock market has broken stride in the last month or so. Through the last quarter of 2013 it kept rising, breaking new highs every few weeks. Just recently the Dow and the S&P have basically gone sideways. … Continue reading →

Posted in financial markets | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Olympic games … lost the plot?

Posted on January 18, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

There is no better metaphor for the hubris of those in power than the Olympic Games. The vaunted Olympic ideal is was that the best sportspeople in the world come together in fun and fellowship to test their extraordinary skills … Continue reading →

Posted in why do people do what they do | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

But I can’t afford it …

Posted on January 17, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

We’ve all said it. “That would be great, but I can’t afford it.” That house, that fancy car, that new dress, that exotic holiday, that night out … BUT, in recent decades … … The presence of credit cards in … Continue reading →

Posted in debt, politics and leadership, why do people do what they do | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Beer goggles and holes

Posted on January 15, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

Is this the typical (central) bankers view of the mountain of debt in the world? … of the effect of the mountain of newly printed money? … of Wall Street reaching for the sky?   “Continuing large-scale asset purchases risks … Continue reading →

Posted in debt | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

China’s debt

Posted on January 15, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

That China has pumped up it’s economic growth with a huge mountain of new debt is not in doubt. In 2008, the quick debt fueled economic stimulus was proportionately way bigger than any other economy in the world. But the … Continue reading →

Posted in debt | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Good debt, bad debt and unreal debt

Posted on January 14, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

Governments, corporations and people borrow to pay for something they need now, but don’t have enough cash/savings to pay for now. If that something is a hard economic asset (say, a power station, or a house), part of the future … Continue reading →

Posted in debt, financial markets, risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Phantom recovery

Posted on January 11, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

Highlights from yesterday’s US Government press release on jobs: unemployment down in one month from 7% to 6.7%; 74,000 new jobs created in December. Sounds OK doesn’t it? The economy must be recovering … (Wall Street rose a bit on … Continue reading →

Posted in employment, tough times | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Politicians under pressure … democracy tested

Posted on January 10, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

Five or more years past the global financial crisis we are seeing more big trends that show just what a tipping point 2008 was. In 2008 and 2009 many changes were obvious: falling stock markets; falling prices; wealth destruction; massive … Continue reading →

Posted in politics and leadership, power and democracy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The market v the economy in two graphs

Posted on January 7, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

The exuberance in the western world’s stock markets is palpable. The lead is coming from Wall Street where the end of year celebration was lubricated by a 30% gain. Thanks to the Federal Reserve printing $1 trillion out of thin … Continue reading →

Posted in financial markets | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Power and democracy … who rules?

Posted on January 4, 2014 by Geoff O'Reilly

Yesterday, whilst pondering “the entitlement to rule” attitude of those in power, I was reminded of a personal experience just about 13 years ago. For 20 minutes or more I sat next to James A Baker III on a bus. … Continue reading →

Posted in power and democracy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment