Are we born to be optimistic, rather than realistic? It seems we are.

Yesterday I cautioned about the optimism bias. So what is it?

The optimism bias is the belief that the future will be better, much better, than the past or present. Apparently, research shows that 80% of us display this bias.

How do we see this play out in practice? Folk believe bad things won’t happen to them:

• ask a couple on their wedding day about the likelihood of their divorce – 0% will acknowledge the possibility, despite experience showing that these days 2 out of 5 couples will divorce
• thousands of times a year a smoker will pull a cigarette from a packet that says their habit will KILL them – but they think “no, I’m the exception, that will only happen to the other guy”
• drink driving – “nah, I won’t have an accident … or get caught”
• risky behaviour “these drugs are fun … they won’t do me any harm”

It plays out on the other side of the equation too – good things will happen to them:

• the TV news says that house prices are going up in Sydney, so suddenly everyone (even those in a different market, not in Sydney) thinks their house is worth much much more
• in a triumph of hope, folk start a small business – “I can run a coffee shop better than those dopes that have just gone broke in this shop” – (Most fail a short time later)
• inexperienced share traders jump on the bull thinking the only way is up
• “I can beat this poker machine”

And we see this bias in the big picture all the time:

• the politicians tell us: things will get better; economic growth will return; we’ll chase and catch all the bad guys – they play our bias to be optimistic – and most folk are lazily sucked in
• the climate deniers: “it’s a gas you can’t see or smell”, how can it possibly bother us – climate change has been happening forever – we’ll be alright!
• many technologists have a fond belief that man’s brain and technological prowess will develop a solution to all our problems … Hmmmm!

If you’d like to see more about the optimism bias go here to see a brilliant and entertaining short talk by Tali Sharot, an eloquent researcher on the subject.

And let’s not forget this wildly optimistic little guy. Wile E Coyote thought that his brain, his cunning and all manner of technological aids would solve his problem … he persevered for years (as I remember it) … didn’t happen … roadrunner 1,000’s, coyote 0!